Help understanding morph calculator numbers

[Kudzu]

I am planing to breed my (A)Rainwater Albino Mack Snow %100 het patternless to my male (B)Rainwater Albino %100 het patternless female and to my (C)High Yellow %66 het Rainwater Albino female.
The numbers I get from A+B are
25% Mack Snow Rainwater Albino het Murphy Patternless
25% Rainwater Albino het Murphy Patternless
12.5% Rainwater Albino
12.5% Mack Snow Rainwater Albino Patternless
12.5% Mack Snow Rainwater Albino
12.5% Patternless Rainwater Albino

Most of the offspring will show Banded patterning

and the numbers from A+C are
12.5% Mack Snow Rainwater Albino het Murphy Patternless
12.5% Mack Snow het Murphy Patternless het Rainwater Albino
12.5% Mack Snow het Rainwater Albino
12.5% Rainwater Albino het Murphy Patternless
12.5% Normal het Murphy Patternless het Rainwater Albino
12.5% Rainwater Albino
12.5% Normal het Rainwater Albino
12.5% Mack Snow Rainwater Albino

Most of the offspring will show Banded patterning

The offspring may well show some High Yellow influence

My question is can someone explain what exactly do the percentages mean on this calculator from milliondollargeckos.co.uk

 

[Kudzu]

oh and here are a couple of picks
male

female

female

 

[Mel&Keith]

It can get pretty confusing (to me at least!) when it's broken up into those percentages. Basically, each percentage is how much of a chance each egg has to hatch out that morph. Here's the same explanation for your first pair but in my words. lol

The numbers I get from A+B are
25% Mack Snow Rainwater Albino het Murphy Patternless
25% Rainwater Albino het Murphy Patternless
12.5% Rainwater Albino
12.5% Mack Snow Rainwater Albino Patternless
12.5% Mack Snow Rainwater Albino
12.5% Patternless Rainwater Albino

Since both of the parents are Rainwaters 100% of the babies will be Rainwater Albino.
Since one parent is also Mack Snow, roughly half of those Rainwater babies will be Mack Snow.
Since both parents are het Patternless, a few of the banded Rainwater or Mack Snow Rainwater babies with be Patternless and the ones who aren't will be 66% possible het Patternless.

So all the percentages are just showing what I explained broken down the the exact percentage of what each egg could be. The only problem is that our Leos never seem to follow the percentages! LOL They do give you at least an idea of what you might get though.

 

[paulh]

The results from the A x C mating supposes that gecko C is a het Rainwater albino. But C is 66-2/3% probability het rainwater albino and 33-1/3% probability not het Rainwater albino. The A x C mating is partly a test cross to see whether gecko C is or is not a het Rainwater albino. If you get at least 7 young and none is a Rainwater albino or Rainwater albino combination, then the odds are 99% that gecko C is not a het Rainwater albino.

You ought to repeat the calculation without the het Rainwater albino in C. One of the two calculations will be correct.

The odds just tell you how to bet to maximize your return over a long period of time. They do not tell you what the result will be for one bet. That's where luck comes in. A lucky gambler can walk out of a casino dripping money. But the casino owner has the odds on his side and posts a profit every year.

 

[M_surinamensis]

The only problem is that our Leos never seem to follow the percentages!

Sample sizes are usually below statistically significant amounts.

A single breeding is like flipping a coin or rolling dice. You will not necessarily see an exact representation of probable results as the results. Especially because each zygote is rolled independently of any others.

The more pairings of the same makeup are done, the more offspring produced, the more the statistically likely outcome will be easily seen. Repeat the same pairing one hundred thousand times and the results will be a lot closer to those mendelian predictions than they are likely to be with two eggs.

 

[Kudzu]

Thank you very much for the help, that cleared uip ALOT

 

[Mel&Keith]

Sample sizes are usually below statistically significant amounts.

A single breeding is like flipping a coin or rolling dice. You will not necessarily see an exact representation of probable results as the results. Especially because each zygote is rolled independently of any others.

The more pairings of the same makeup are done, the more offspring produced, the more the statistically likely outcome will be easily seen. Repeat the same pairing one hundred thousand times and the results will be a lot closer to those mendelian predictions than they are likely to be with two eggs.

Agreed. The probabilities based on 100 or 1000 can seem pretty random when you're only dealing with 6 or 10 offspring. So far this season from a Mack Snow Patternless x Patternless we've gotten 5 Mack Snow Patternless and 1 Patternless. lol

 

[Kudzu]

12.5% Mack Snow Rainwater Albino Patternless
from A+B is what I am REALLY aiming for
thanks alot guys for clearing the situation up
oh and that calculator doesnt have
Super Snow Murphy Patternless Rainwater Albino
unless its named something else

 

[Kudzu]

Made a mistake, I called the guy I got her from and she is just a normal het for nothing there was some confusion when I bought her