Proving a 66% poss het question

[desertgecko]

I have a female super snow 66% possible het tremper and a male mack snow tremper. My question is, how long do you breed her for to find out if she is het or not? Obviously if she IS het I will hatch an albino, but if she isn't, how long do you go for before saying, alright she isn't het?

I'm not pairing them together yet, I'm just curious now. Although she has been in with my male RAPTOR and looks gravid :main_thumbsup:

 

[fallen_angel]

With a SS that is het for Tremper X Mack Snow Tremper, you would get 50 percent albino babies.. So those are pretty good chances, it shouldn't take long to prove out the het. with those odds :main_yes: I think after 2-3 clutches with zero albino babies, I would begin to think that the SS was not het. But best of luck to you, I hope she proves true for you

PS - if the het. proves true, all babies that are not albino would be 100 percent het. Tremper as well

 

[Halley]

That sounds about right

 

[acpart]

It can be hard to be sure with statistics. There is a 50% possibility each time. However, last year I bred a tremper female with a het tremper male that resulted in 6 babies, no albinos. I got concerned and asked the breeder if he was sure the male was het. Late in the season I bred a het tremper female to the het tremper male (theoretically 25% chance for albino) and got 2 out of 3 albino. This year with two het trempers bred to an albino I'm getting 75% albino.

Aliza

 

[fallen_angel]

Very true, statistics are just an estimate.. you can flip a coin several times and land on heads every time

 

[Mel&Keith]

I would feel fairly confident after 16 babies. We have 2 Eclipses that were 50% possible het Tremper both bred to Trempers. One popped out a Tremper from the first egg, the other has made 6 non-Albinos but the season is over for us. I guess I'll have to wait another year to know for sure about the one! Sometimes odds just take a while to even out.

 

[shadowx362]

LOL I have a female SHT het tremper bred to a tremper BB and out of 10 eggs only 1 egg came out as a Tremper still have 2 eggs so I am crossing my fingers

 

[paulh]

I have a female super snow 66% possible het tremper and a male mack snow tremper. My question is, how long do you breed her for to find out if she is het or not? Obviously if she IS het I will hatch an albino, but if she isn't, how long do you go for before saying, alright she isn't het?

I had to work this out a while ago.

If a tremper albino comes out, you are 100% certain that the possible het is a het. You can never be 100% certain that the possible het is not a het. 0.01 or 1% probability that it is a het is a common end point for tests of this sort.

In a cross like this, the probability that a single egg is not albino is 0.5, so the probability of a het having all normal-looking babies is 0.5 to the nth power (0.5^n), where n equals the number of eggs. If n=7, then the formula is 0.5^7= 0.007, which is less than 0.01. Which means there is less than a 1% chance that the possible het is a het and produced all normal-looking babies by chance.

In other words, end the test after 7 normal and no Tremper albino babies.

If you mate the possible het to a known het Tremper albino, then the probability of getting a normal looking baby is 0.75, so the formula is 0.75^n. In this test, the end point would be when there had been 17 normal-looking babies and no albinos.

By the way, the test and number of eggs is the same no matter whether the possible het Tremper albino is a 50% probability het or a 66% probability het.

Good luck with your testing.

 

[godzillizard]

Thanks for that, Paul

 

[fallen_angel]

Ahh that makes sense, thanks for that equation Paul